Drone debris in Romania. Why doesn’t NATO react?
The alliance continues to pretend that it is not formally in conflict with the Russian Federation
The story of the falling drone debris in Romania ended badly. That is, nothing — just political statements. The lack of reaction causes many people to run the gamut of feelings – from misunderstanding to indignation. The alliance continues to pretend that formally it has no conflict with the Russian Federation, although all its members help us. During the war, many “red lines” were moved, and this process continues. But the main red line remains motionless, “sacred”, and there is a consensus around it. For now.
The Alliance will only invoke Article 5 of mutual defense in the event of a targeted attack on its territory. This has its own logic
The Alliance will only invoke Article 5 of mutual defense in the event of a targeted attack on its territory. This has its own logic: imagine that we struck some Russian target in Siberia, and a fragment of the drone fell on Chinese territory. It is obvious that China will not declare war on us over this, although the conversation will not be easy. But in the case of NATO, the fall of drone debris is the result of systemic Russian aggression. We are not naive and do not expect the Alliance to invoke the collective military response clause. But the lack of a response (and statements and declarations, of course, do not count) makes the Alliance weaker. Moreover, a vacuum of responsibility arises, otherwise where is the limit when, in fact, NATO should react? This is a continuation, albeit completely different, of the discussion about gray security zones — this is exactly where such a zone arises.
In the Russian Federation they understand and respect only strength, and NATO must show such strength
Could the Alliance respond adequately? Certainly. For example, the Romanians could request consultations under Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. She says every member of the Alliance can do this if they feel their security is threatened. And we could be invited to them — in the form of a meeting of the newly created Ukraine-NATO council. There are many other response options, but the Alliance is hampered by a lack of understanding of what it actually means to not have even an indirect conflict with the Russian Federation as a nuclear state. This prevents NATO from providing us with security guarantees during war, and the fact of being invited to NATO is being interpreted in exactly this way. But this prevents the Alliance from providing an adequate, let alone a powerful response to a violation of NATO airspace, because this is precisely a violation — it does not matter whether it is a by-product of an attack on us or not. In the Russian Federation, only strength is understood and respected, and NATO must show such strength — of course, responsibly, otherwise Putin, who despises the West, will again begin to raise the stakes.