Germany opposes the transfer of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as much as it can. But why ?
Tanks in general, and the German Leopard 2 in particular, are a necessary and obligatory component of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and, accordingly, the liberation of its territory from the Russians.
We can say that the German Leopard 2 tanks are the Joker that can unconditionally contribute to the real victory of Ukraine in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
However, Germany is not interested for economic reasons in the military victory of Ukraine over Russia.
Germany is interested in another scenario for the outcome of the war. When Russia can save face and end the war through negotiations.
Then Russia will be able to stay on the edge of the cliff and not fall apart due to military defeat as one country.
This means that it will be beneficial for Germany to trade with one country and not with a dozen fragments of the Russian Federation.
Moreover, Germany is the initiator and conductor of the peace plan based on the interests of Russia in Ukraine.
The plan provides for the withdrawal of Russian troops to the line on February 23, 2022 and further negotiations on the status of Crimea and on the demilitarization of the border area.
If such a German peace plan is implemented, Ukraine and Russia will be able to get a respite in the war for several years.
After these years of peace, a trained and reformed Russian army will be able to resume its offensive against Kyiv and Ukraine.
However, this will be a problem for Ukraine and Poland. Poland, as the bastion of the West following Ukraine, may face the fact that Russian tanks will enter its borders.
What will be the future plans of Russia in relation to Poland and the Baltic states are still hidden in the fog of the future