The theme of building a new city on the Arabat Spit, widely advertised at the end of the year, began to fade into the shadows.
Most likely, Moscow realized that the new city on the Arabat Spit, most likely in the context of the supply of tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for throwing to the south, to the Sea of Azov, is an irrelevant topic.
Moreover, according to press reports, all capital construction will be frozen in Crimea in 2023 due to funding restrictions.
War is a gluttonous thing and requires a lot of money, a lot of resources and a lot of people.
However, let’s see why Saldo, the temporary Gauleiter of the Kherson region, announced the construction of a new city on the Arabat Spit
The goal is obvious — to create an administrative enclave in the geographical part of Crimea, which, according to the territorial structure, belongs to the Kherson region.
In the event of the implementation of a truce with Ukraine according to the German-French plan for peace in Ukraine, it is Crimea that will remain in Russia in the coming years.
There, with some time lag, there will be negotiations on the future status of Crimea
However, the Crimean peninsula in the coming years, according to the German-French version of the world in Ukraine, will remain under the control of the Russian Federation, along with the Kherson enclave on the Arabat Spit.
It is in this vein that Russia’s plans, voiced by the Gauleiter of the occupied Kherson region Saldo, to build a new city on the Arabat Spit, should be considered.
In addition to the construction of the city, there are plans to build a road along the Arabat Spit towards Kerch, as well as a bridge across the Sivash to the Crimea.
In January 2023, road equipment from Russia arrived in Genichesk to build roads along the Arabat Spit from the village of Strelkovoe towards the Crimea and the bridge in the area of the Salgir River.
Such a transport link will allow the Russian Defense Ministry to maneuver reserves and reinforcements from the Crimean side.
Also, the road and the bridge to the Crimea from the Arabat Spit will be an alternative to road infrastructure in the event of successful attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Chongar bridge and shelling in the area of the Perekop isthmus.
The scenario of the latter — regular shelling of the Crimean isthmuses, with one hundred percent probability, will be implemented after the transfer of missiles to the Khymers with a range of 150 km by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In this case, targets in Askania-Nova, Novotroitsk and Genichesk will already be under fire.
However, the village of Strelkovoe will remain relatively safe for now.
In the case of the implementation of a very likely scenario for the breakthrough of Ukrainian armored units to the Sea of Azov in the area of the city of Berdyansk, almost the entire Crimea, along with the Kerch bridge, will be under fire.
Several stages of the liberation of the south of Ukraine are being considered.
The first — the isolation of the Russian bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper with the subsequent forcing of the Russian Federation to withdraw its troops from there has already been implemented.
The second stage is more difficult. In this case, Ukraine needs to cut the Russian land corridor to the Crimea with an attack by armored groups to the Sea of Azov.
After that, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin the same operation in relation to the Crimean isthmuses that they carried out in the Kherson region.
The shelling of the isthmuses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will stifle the supply of Russian troops on the Left Bank of the Kherson region, forcing them to withdraw their troops from there.
Here, the difficulty will be to block the supply in the Perekop area due to its large width.
The easiest will be to break the bridges on the Arabat Spit and the Chongarsky Bridge.
All these goals are rather thin supply chains for the Russians that are easily cut.
Both the Chongar and Genik bridges have no alternatives in that area, and their location in the middle of the Sivash swamps makes their rapid restoration problematic.
